Oaks & Derby Preview

The Oaks looks a competitive affair to me with a number of the runners in with a credible chance of lifting the prize. Ballydoyle have a terrific record in the race over the last fifteen years so Wonder Of Wonders and Misty For Me have to be considered, both also have good form to their name with Wonder Of Wonders having won the Cheshire Oaks and Misty For Me having taken the Irish 1000 Guineas. Why and Eirnin are the other runners for the stable both available at 100-1. Godolphin of course won the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket with Blue Bunting who comes to Epsom as favourite for a race in which the jolly has a good record, five wins in the last ten years, and she is expected to be better over a mile and a half.
Mick Channon sends the unbeaten Zain Al Boldan to take her chance but this is a major step up in class even though her Oaks Trial win at Lingfield was impressive. Dancing Rain trained by William Haggas is another who will need to step up on what she has achieved already but she will have the assistance of Johnny Murtagh in the saddle.
I of course having been saying all season on this site that the Sir Michael Stoute trained Havant might just find middle distances more to her liking than the mile of the Guineas and that she will possibly be a better bet for The Oaks. You could argue that she was doing no more than staying on in the Guineas but I am convinced the mile and a half is the trip for her and at 6-1 is worth a punt.
The Derby market has been thrown into confusion in the run-up to the big race with the French horse Pour Moi coming in for support following his ‘Breakfast with the Stars’ run-out and of course the injury scare for Carlton House. Pour Moi has certainly been the horse in the news of late but it is notoriously difficult to assess the French form and Andre Fabre has a terrible record in the race. On paper he has a fair chance but there are questions to be answered. Vadamar also takes a trip across the channel and the Aga Khan owned colt has an each-way chance having chased home Pour Moi at Saint-Cloud in May.
Of the home team Native Khan, trained by Ed Dunlop, will be ridden by Johnny Murtagh and must have a squeak though I feel a mile and a quarter might be his distance. The two main runners for Ballydoyle are Recital and Seville following the defection of Roderic O’Connor to the French Derby. Both colts certainly have a chance with Recital, ridden by Kieren Fallon, probably the best of the pair.
The Godolphin team have Ocean War as their main representative but even with the irrepressible Frankie on board this looks a little to hot for their charge and we are unlikely to see the Dettori flying dismount this year.
Carlton House (owned by Her Majesty The Queen if you didn’t already know) is the form choice but you are of course taking his fitness on trust after the injury scare at the start of the week. If anyone can get the horse ready for the big race it is Sir Michael Stoute, and you can call me a soppy old romantic, but it would be great to see the Queen finally win the Derby. All being well the colt will arrive at Epsom in tip top shape and if he does he will take all the beating.
I can see it being a Sir Michael Stoute trained double at Epsom and have invested a couple of quid this morning (non-runner no bet) on Havant for the Oaks and Carlton House for the Derby win double.