Advised Ante-Post Bets
2000 Guineas
1000 Guineas
July 2010: Memory 8-1 (18th)
Derby Oaks Double
June 2011: Havant Oaks and Carlton House Derby win double 19.5-1
St Leger
August 2011: Census 6-1
14/08:St Leger
August 2011: Census 6-1
I wrote on this site yesterday whilst tipping Census, who went on to win the Group Three Geoffrey Freer Stakes at 4-1: 'I have a feeling that Census is improving with every race and will turn out to be a St Leger horse.' Following the victory the Richard Hannon trained colt is firmly in the St. Leger reckoning and I have taken a little of the 6-1 on offer today.
24/07:
The St Leger market is wide open right now with nine horses priced at 10-1 or shorter. I can make a case for all nine of them and a number of the bigger priced runners. The Girdy coffers will be kept in the bank for now as I await further clues to the last Classic of the year.
01/06:
It has been reported today that a decision on whether Carlton House runs in The Derby is likely to be made by Friday. The Queen's colt, trained by Sir Michael Stoute, is favourite for the big race on Saturday but his participation has been put in doubt since he sustained a strained ankle during a routine canter on Monday.
As for The Oaks Mahmood Al Zarooni is making bullish noises in regard to Blue Bunting, he is reported as saying ‘Blue Bunting is doing very well and she has improved since her victory at Newmarket.’
31/05:
The big names are all still in the running for the Derby at the confirmation stage with the Sir Michael Stoute trained favourite Carlton House leading the 17 runners confirmed this morning. As for the Oaks 16 fillies have stood their ground with Blue Bunting leading the way in the betting.
Jockey bookings are also now being confirmed for the big races with the news that Kieren Fallon is set to get the leg-up on Ballydoyle's number one Derby hope Recital and Johnny Murtagh is set to ride Native Khan being to two bookings likely to be of most interest to punters.
27/05:
For the romantic patriots amongst us, as well as the racing journalists across the country, the Queen having The Derby favourite is a story that is almost too good to be true. The Derby is the one Classic Her Majesty hasn’t won coming closest with Auerole finishing second in 1953. She hasn’t had a runner for thirty years and her last two colts came up against two of the all time greats. Her last runner was Church Parade in the 1981 running won so memorably by Shergar and before that she had Milford, ridden by Lestor Piggott, in the 1979 running won by Troy. All reports are good so far concerning Carlton House and he did all that was asked of him in his Dante win at York.
The ‘Breakfast With The Stars’ get together took place at Epsom yesterday and many were impressed with the French colt Pour Moi. He certainly looks a decent animal but Andre Fabre has a terrible record in the Derby, nine runners and not one even framed up, and he admitted himself afterwards in an interview that the style of French racing doesn’t help preparing for a race such as the Derby hence the trip over. The likely jockey on the day nineteen-year-old Mickael Barzalona was also having his first ride on the Downs yesterday also so there must be doubts about the colts chances bearing in mind the difficulties involved with riding the famously undulating Epsom track.
Native Khan had what could only be described as a gentle gallop to blow away the cobwebs and very little could be gleaned from the work he did though trainer Ed Dunlop appeared happy enough.
The plans for the O’Brien team are still up in the air at the time of writing with noe definite plans likely to be confirmed until early next week. Godolphin look likely to have just the one runner in the Derby in the shape of Ocean War with Casamento reportedly being aimed at the Prix du Jockey-Club and Genius Best at the King Edward VII Stakes.
The Boys In Blue were though making positive noises in regard to Blue Bunting for The Oaks Simon Crisford insisting that they always thought the mile and a half would suit her better and that the 2000 Guineas win was a ‘fantastic bonus’. I of course having been saying all season that The Sir Michael Stoute trained Havant might just find middle distances more to her liking than the mile of the Guineas and that she will possibly be a better bet for The Oaks.
25/04:
Pathfork is available at around 5-1, The O’Brien trained Roderic O’Connor at 7-1, Craven Stakes winner Native Khan is a 12-1 shot whilst the unbeaten Fury, trained by William Haggas is a 16-1 chance. Godolphin have two runners in Casamento trained by Mahmood Al Zarooni at 16-1 and the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Saamidd at 25-1.
The 1,000 Guineas looks likely to be a far more competitive affair at Newmarket on Sunday after all the leading contenders stood their ground at the latest confirmation stage for the fillies Classic except of course White Moonstone who has been withdrawn; Barefoot Lady has been supplemented at a cost of £30,000.
Moonlight Cloud and Havant head the market at 5-1 with my ante-post bet Memory available at 6-1.
21/04:
Frankel, generally now 1-2, appears to have scared off more than a few with only 19 runners left in the 2000 Guineas at the latest acceptance stage. The main withdrawals were Wootton Bassett, Dubai Prince, Zoffany and my ante-post punt Strong Suit.
The 1000 Guineas has 30 left in with Havant 5-1 favourite followed by Moonlight Crowd, my ante post bet Memory, Misty For Me and White Moonstone in the betting.
My two other ante-post bets, Helleborine for the 1000 and Janood for the 2000, are both non-runners.
18/04:
Sorry to read that Dubai Prince will miss both the 2,ooo Guineas and Derby because of injury. Unbeaten in his two starts as a juvenile I was looking forward to seeing the colt again this year but hopefully he will be fit and well for the end of the campaign.
Frankel did everything asked of him in the Greenham and has shortened for the 2000 Guineas and Derby on the back of his four length victory. Strong Suit was a disappointing last of the six looking beat two furlongs out.
World Domination will now be aimed at the Derby following his debut victory at Newbury on Saturday.
Helleborine looks unlikely to cross the Channel for the 1000 Guineas and is more likely now to run in the French equivalent later in May.
06/04:
Things are starting to happen with the protagonists for the 2011 Classics. Godolphin have started to bring their horses back to Europe and the Saeed bin Suroor trained 1000 Guineas hope White Moonstone has arrived in the UK from Dubai as well as 2000 Guineas and Derby possible Dubai Prince from the Mahmood Al Zarooni's Marmoom Stables.
Aidan O’Brian Derby hope Recital will make his seasonal reappearance in the PW McGrath Memorial Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown on Sunday (10th April), a race often used to launch a Ballydoyle Derby contenders campaigns in the past.
Ed Dunlop is reportedly considering the Craven Stakes for his colt Native Khan a seasonal debut.
Colts
The Richard Hannon trained Strong Suit has reportedly wintered well and the plan is to run in the Greenham Stakes prior to a tilt at the 2000 Guineas all being well, I am obviously hopeful he has strengthened over the winter and can put his speed to good use at Newmarket having been in possession of an ante-pot voucher since July of last year. My other ante-post bet for the 2000 Guineas Janood has failed to progress and it looks as though quite frankly it is not worth the paper it is written on.
The Godolphin colt Farhh hasn’t done much yet having only seen a racetrack once but he won that race at Newmarket in July in a nice fashion. By Pivotal out of German middle distance mare Gonbarda the colt could be anything and if aimed at Newmarket for the 30th April for the 2000 Guineas he would be worth a look.
Frankel is the red-hot favourite for the 2000 Guineas, and unusually, Henry Cecil is almost bullish about the colts well being. There is always the question of has the horse trained on and we should know more when he re-appears in the Greenham Stakes. If he has trained on, bearing in mind Cecil maintains he was not at his best when winning the Dewhurst, then he is rightly favourite and it will take a very good horse to beat him.
Jessica Harrington appears happy with Pathfork and the plan is apparently to go straight to Newmarket without a prep race the 2000 Guineas.
Richard Fahey has also been upbeat in interviews concerning Wooton Bassett but this colt is also unlikely to run in any of the trials and the plan will be to go straight to the 2000 Guineas.
Dubai Prince is another Godolphin colt I am looking forward to seeing over the coming months but I am convinced he is more a Derby horse than a 2000 Guineas hope.
Fillies
While Frankel dominates the Colts Classics marketplace at this stage there is no outstanding filly with little between a number of horses on two-year-old form. I am of course a fan of Memory having backed her for the 1000 Guineas last season following her wins at Goodwood, Ascot and Newmarket. She disappointed at the Curragh in August but she was reportedly found to be ill after and you can forget that bit of form. My other ante-post bet on the 1000 Guineas is Helleborine and having taken 20-1 about her in August I am delighted to read that Newmarket is her main target. If she wins her intended trial, the Prix Imprudence, she will become a lot shorter than the 8-1 available at the start of April and her trainer Criquette Head-Maarek knows how to train a filly for the Guineas.
The Godolphin filly White Moonstone did nothing wrong as a two-year-old winning all of her four starts culminating in a victory in the Meon Valley Stud Fillies Mile at Ascot.
Misty For Me looks likely to be aimed at the Irish 1000 and Oaks and the filly looked to improve all season culminating in her victory over Helleborine at Longchamp in October. It should be well worth keeping an eye on her over in the emerald Isle if she does not come across to Newmarket.
Mick Channon has a possible outsider for the 1000 Guineas in the shape of Soraaya who has some solid two-year-old form and could be decent although slightly shorter than a mile might suit her best.
Andrew Balding reports all is well with I Love Me and she is likely to go straight to Newmarket.
Sir Mark Prescott has been well reported in his concern for Hooray and if she hasn’t particularly thrived as reported it is dangerous to be investing too much cash on her even making Newmarket let alone winning.
The Sir Michael Stoute trained Havant moved toward the head of the 1000 Guineas betting through March after some good gallops reports but I have a sneaky feeling that middle distances might be her thing and she is possibly a better bet for The Oaks.
